Europe’s Energy Disorder is More Lethal in Bangladesh and Pakistan, October 10, 2022
Europe’s Energy Disorder is More Lethal in Bangladesh and Pakistan, October 10, 2022
Drill their way to more energy security
TDAVISGEO’s Newsletter are a collection of what interest me and subjects I feel I know something about. That’s mostly field notes and videos describing the geology along trails and roads in southern and eastern California and Nevada, plus occasional comments and articles on key energy issues.
Natural gas (NG) is the principal fuel for electrical generation in Bangladesh and the foundation for the nation’s rapid economic growth during the last two decades (World Bank, 2020*). Since late 2018, Bangladesh has imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) to supplement NG supply to meet increasing demand. Well before the present high LNG price spike of 2022 it was appreciated by energy experts in Bangladesh that preventing economic decline will require a combination of in-country NG discoveries and reserve growth from existing fields, or expansion of other reliable and resilient base-load energy sources such as carbon-intensive coal or development of carbon-free nuclear power. For instance, Shetol et al. (2019**), “The possibility of natural gas being exhausted within a decade and half worries us all…Bangladesh is likely to exhaust its gas reserve by about 2030.” Imam (2021***) states, “…Bangladesh’s gas exploration has apparently been stalled because of a lack of dynamic vision.” NG exploration needs to dramatically increase over the next few years to avoid potentially severe economic contraction after 2030.
Bangladesh will have an offshore block bidding round that will be announced in December 2022. Bid round will be based on (new) model PSC 2022 being prepared by Petrobangla as an update of model PSC 2019. The Model PSC 2022 will be posted in Petrobangla website very soon, http://www.petrobangla.org.bd/
Only offshore bidding will be announced in December 2022. Onshore block bidding is likely to be announced early next year (2023).
*World Bank, 2020, GDP growth (annual %)- Bangladesh, World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2019&locations=BD&start=2000
**Shetol, M.H., et al., 2019, Present status of Bangladesh gas fields and future development: A review, Journal of Natural Gas Geoscience 4, p. 347-354.
***Imam, B., 2021, Why is gas exploration stalled in Bangladesh, The Daily Star, Opinion, March 7, 2021.
On October 10, 2022, Doomberg published “Last in Line: Europe’s inevitable hunt for BTUs is crushing emerging market economies.” Doomberg’s comments (link below) on the impact of high LNG prices on developing nations like Bangladesh and Pakistan, driven by Europe’s sudden need for fossil fuels resulting from their unrealistic and unscientific renewable energy policies over the last two decades. It concludes with this damning paragraph: “We often utter the phrase “the path function matters” in discussing the clean energy transition. A poorly selected pathway – that of the IEA and much of the West today – inevitably shoves the more vulnerable groups to the back of the line. Is that simply the inevitable effect of globally competitive markets? No, not when there is another way available, one based in physics that accepts tradeoffs. One that doesn’t shove a portion of humanity off the plank.”
For many in the West “Last in Line” will be an eye-opener and if you live in a wealthy nation with energy options and security, feel lucky and a bit shamed about how the energy transition is working out for others. I’ve worked in both Bangladesh and Pakistan as a geologist looking for new oil and gas fields. Both nations are highly dependent on natural gas for electrical generation. Brownouts and blackouts are inconveniences in the West but in Bangladesh and Pakistan people die from energy shortages. The dire situation could be alleviated: Bangladesh’s geology, and Pakistan’s too, show significant in-country natural gas reserves and potential and they could drill their way to more energy security with increased foreign investment and fossil-fuel realism from the West. An approach the West has discouraged for the last two decades due to climate change concerns. More on this at https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2021/12/natural-gas-underexplored-in-bangladesh
