Earthquake Tears Through Myanmar (Part 2)

Financial Costs and Potential for Regime Change

Myanmar’s pre-earthquake condition was already dire. The economy shrank 18% following the 2021 military coup and remains 10% below pre-coup levels. Inflation ranges from 12–18%, poverty has doubled, and more than three million people were displaced by civil war before the earthquake.

A normal distribution of a USGS loss estimate gives a 68% probability that losses range from $10 billion to $140.8 billion with a mean and median of $75.4 billion (Figure 2), an alarmingly high loss for a country already in financial crisis. The low-end estimate rivals or exceeds the costs of the devastating 2003 Iran, 2015 Nepal, and 2021 Haiti earthquakes. The low-end is 15% of Myanmar’s pre-earthquake GDP ($64.9 billion) and equal to the annual cost of the civil war, while the mean cost is about 754% higher than the annual cost of the war. For comparison, the Syrian earthquake reached 70% of its civil war costs and three years later the Assad’s regime ceased to exist.

Without significant external support, the humanitarian and economic costs of the earthquake and civil war will increase malnutrition and disease, cause mass migration, further destabilize the nation and its borders, and increase tensions with Myanmar’s neighbors.

Are financial losses from the earthquake likely to cause regime change?

•Low-end total cost is $10 billion rivals or exceeds the devastating 2003 Iran, 2015 Nepal, and 2021 Haiti earthquakes.

•Low-end total cost is 15% of Myanmar’s 2024 GDP ($68 bn) and approx. equal to its annual civil war cost ($10 billion).

•2023 Syrian earthquake(s) cost $5.2 billion, 42% of its 2023 GDP ($12.4 billion), and less than 6% of the annual civil war cost ($90 billion), in 2024 the Assad regime fell.

•Going forward, the mean total cost of the Myanmar earthquake is $75.4 billion over the next 10 years, and will equal ~75% of the estimated yearly cost of the war.

•Can the junta afford these extreme financial losses? Where will the money come from?

Financial losses alone will probably not cause regime change, given the junta’s ability to survive past natural disasters and civil war, continued key support of China, Russia and a few others, and its callous behavior towards much of its population

Thomas L. Davis PhD

California Professional Geologist #4171
Ventura, CA 93001
USA

https://thomasldavisgeologist.com/

Figure 2. Graph shows the mean cost estimate of the 2025 Myanmar earthquake ($75.4 billion) is very high relative to recent large earthquakes in developing countries. The low cost estimate of the Myanmar earthquake ($10.0 billion) is equal to the annual cost of the civil war, while the mean cost is about 754% higher than the annual cost of the war.